In the betting world it’s all about the money. In that respect, there are many comparisons with investing in shares. You should view every bet as an investment. Some people go wrong, for others things turn out well. As long as you are in the plus in the long term.
In this article we give you 10 tips to get rich betting on football
We’ll start right away with a crucial point. We may think that FC Barcelona will make mincemeat of Real Sociedad in their own Camp Nou, but do the odds offer value? In other words: does our probability calculation match the odds offered? Value is a simple concept, but also difficult to understand. And that may be a good thing, because the money of naive people influences the market to such an extent that excellent opportunities often arise for the small group of bettors who do know where the value lies.
2. Basic knowledge of probability calculation
Successful sports betting is purely about numbers. It is about probability calculation, about being able to estimate whether odds represent value or not. Betting based on gut feelings can be successful in the short term, but in order to enjoy profits in the longer term, we will still have to be able to calculate whether the available odds are playable or not. Of course, bankroll management also involves some mental arithmetic.
3. Understand how bookmakers determine their odds
In short, bookmakers determine their odds based on how they think us punters will split our stakes, less than how they estimate the chances of both teams – although both aspects are of course inextricably linked. There is of course a bit more to it, but the aim of the bookmakers is basically to ensure themselves a guaranteed profit, regardless of the outcome. This fact offers smart bettors the opportunity to spot value.
4. Resist the temptation of ‘the big blow’
The high odds for combinations seem attractive, but are almost always disastrous for a bankroll in the long term. Ultimately, it’s always about value – and we won’t easily find that in combinations. We look at it in the following way. Unibet offers an odds of 1.91 for the even/odd market in the NBA; that amounts to a margin of 4.71%. If we were to now make a combination of four picks in this market, we would get a total odds of 13.31 and the margin would have increased to no less than 16.81%! The higher the combination, the higher the margin. So we would be playing into the hands of the bookmaker.
5. Don’t bet to make a match more interesting
Betting purely to create extra excitement – or even worse: out of boredom – is disastrous for a bankroll. In the long term, this will not be successful. For extra excitement, the tip competition here on the website is very suitable. It increases the excitement and there are prizes to be won, but at least bankroll and ROI remain intact.
6. Being able to fall in love with the ugly duckling
Anyone who has been involved in the betting world for a longer period of time falls in love with the team that no one wants. In fact, the worse a team looks on paper, the more interesting it becomes. This sounds strange, but the bottom line is that the less a team is popular with the general public, the more value can usually be achieved. So we mainly keep an eye on teams that are doing well, but have underperformed in the last four to five games. When everyone bets on the opponent, the value on the ugly duckling will increase.
7. Being able to forget previous bets
It is important not to be complacent about a few losing bets. We must maintain discipline and confidence in our own abilities. On the other hand, we should not get carried away with a few nice wins. Discipline is also the magic word when it comes to winning. We stay with both feet on the ground.
8. The ability to put things into perspective
The ability to put things into perspective is particularly useful when we are in a losing streak. There are more important things in life than a lost bet. Getting too excited about a ball outside the post or an offside goal is not only good for our state of mind, but is also a sign that we are probably having too risky bankroll management.
9. A reasonable bankroll
A bankroll must be able to withstand a blow. They do not have to be spectacular amounts, but anyone who can consistently make a profit with a reasonable bankroll will see that the bankroll increases rapidly. Let’s say we make four hundred bets a year, and we manage to achieve a 105% ROI for ten years in a row (good job!). It may not seem like it’s going fast enough in the first few years, but just look at the table below to see what happens if we manage to maintain this level with a starting bankroll of €100!
Year
Start-up capital
Bets
ROI
Avg. stake (3/10) in €
Final capital
1
100.00
400
105%
3.00
160.00
2
160.00
400
105%
4.80
256.00
3
256.00
400
105%
7.68
409.60
4
409.60
400
105%
12.29
655.40
5
655.40
400
105%
19.66
1048.60
6
1048.60
400
105%
31.46
1677.80
7
1677.80
400
105%
50.33
2684.40
8
2684.40
400
105%
80.53
4295.00
9
4295.00
400
105%
128.85
6872.00
10
6872.00
400
105%
206.16
10995.20
10. Sense of the long term
It would be great to be rich overnight, but of course it doesn’t work that way. It’s about the long term. There is such a thing as the 10,000 hour rule. This theory states that if you put 10,000 hours into a project and really commit to it, success will inevitably follow. Of course, that kite will not always fly, but the message is clear. If you enjoy it and can use your mind at the same time, you are already well on your way.
